The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .
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Imagine you then worked the rest of your life on bringing about more positive futures, but found to your horror that your efforts were largely in vain, and that the future developing was the future in which little was done t “” comes from a powerful emotional concept: Every American interested in fairness and sustainability needs to read this book and understand the amount of global resources we currently consume per capita, as well as the challenges that face all global citizens moving forward.
The latest assessment, published inconcluded that the global average surface temperature is most likely to increase by 2. Open Preview See a Problem?
Being a firm believer in Peak Oil, I cannot agree with his rather quick dismissal of oil scarcity due to his faith in unconventional oil as substitute, without any consideration of vastly lower and decreasing net energy from such sources. Dec 28, Anthony Decaro rated it really liked it. The author was one of the researchers for the alarm-bell-ringing “Limits to Growth” 40 years ago, so now he takes another whack at extrapolation for the next 40 years.
No mention of the specter of nuclear winter is made. Deep social and economic disparity has characterized the countries around the Mediterranean basin for a lengthy period of time. His predictions may well come to be true in the short term more of the same, just worsebut he makes no effort to predict the future when things begin to unravel – politically, economic Jorgen Randers extends the trends to make predictions about the future.
That been said, I feel this huge bulk of information has a strong left-wing bias. Productivity will grow, but encounter obstacles. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? At the same time, the negative effects of the current system will become clearer.
But what is already happening, and what will become clearer over the next forty years, is that the contours of the new will take shape. Oct 21, Sharman Russell rated it it was amazing.
What is often not well understood about LTG is that it was a scenario analysis rather than a forecast; the idea was to analyse the impact of various social behaviours and decisions to determine alternative futures, rather than definitively map out what would happen.
These original models, as published in the “famous in some circles” book “Limits to Growth”. I look forward to reading Flannery’s book “Atmosphere of Hope” next, and having a more hopeful outlook once more.
I read the Kindle version but have asked for a gift of the hard copy just to have on my bookshelf. It is well-written and set out. After years of living with this distress and your family and friends living with youyou decide to seek psychological balance, and to soberly accept reality, whatever randrrs is, in order to move on.
Unlike the original book The Limits of Growth from – scenario forecasting – this attempts at trend forecasting using a wealth of data that wasn’t available when the original book was written.
Type any number you want, and get any answer you raders. Norway has to seriously reform everything before or have 80k people unemployed for periods. Mar 19, John rated it liked it.
It might seem foolhardy to try to forecast the development in health and medicine in forty years to come.
Either way, some of our fate might as well be sealed: At the other extreme, in North Africa and the Middle East—with the exception of Israel and partly Turkey—populations are still rising rapidly, incomes are low, and political instability reigns.
Randers has written numerous books and scientific jofgen, and was coauthor of The Limits to Growth inBeyond the Limits inLimits to Growth: It is based on a model similar to that used by the Limits To Growth forecasters of which Jorgen Randers is onebut updated to include current data and focused on what the author assesses to be the most likely scenario over the next forty years. There are no discussion topics on this book yet.
It will be a “new Dark Age of hard times for the many and inordinate privilege and wealth for the few. Forty years ago, The Limits rsnders Growth addressed the question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth.
Population will stabilise after adding a mere billion or 2 or 3? More of them are educated and fewer of them live in poverty.
Despite the Fukushima reactor disaster in spring jorben, the prevailing mood in many countries in autumn remained broadly supportive of some kind of nuclear renaissance. Looking back explains why. One can certain laud Randers’ attempt to use computational models to build a rigorous, internally consistent approach to building his forecast.